Why SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Are All Going Public in 2026 — Takahiko Ezaki on the 'Bearish Future' Misread

Takahiko Ezaki, on Wealth On's investment commentary show, addresses why SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all queueing up for large IPOs in 2026. He opens by attacking a common analyst trope: 'Buffett's cash ratio is at a historic high, so a crash must be near.'

Ezaki admits he used to read it that way too. Before the Lehman crisis, Buffett's cash was unusually high; then the market dropped about 50%. The pattern looks predictive — that Buffett uses some kind of research to detect coming crashes and raises cash in advance. The actual story is plainer: he wasn't predicting it. And the framing that 'Buffett is retired' is also wrong — he stepped down as CEO but still comes in every day, still does stock analysis, still buys stocks. His cash position reflects how he operates, not a forecast.

The show takes a detour through media incentives. Ezaki uses a vivid analogy. Call someone at 2 am offering a tire at 50% off and they'll yell at you for waking them up. But if someone is outside at 2 am trying to take their tire, they're up and out the door immediately. Loss reactions are far stronger than gain reactions.

Articles that exploit that wiring — 'crash incoming' — get read. From the writer's perspective, that kind of article performs. The incentive doesn't line up with truth. The same logic applies to the 2027 crash narrative. Yes, that scenario is possible (no one knows the future), but reading the synchronised SpaceX / OpenAI / Anthropic IPOs as confirmation of it is the wrong inference. That sets up the actual answer.

Ezaki's answer is anticlimactically simple. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all pushing 2026 IPOs because they want capital fast. The businesses these three operate cost enormous amounts of money. There are plans on the table, and the capital would unlock them.

The counterargument has some weight too. Large IPOs in the same year disperse available capital and lower each company's take — companies don't usually do that. So if they're doing it anyway, the inference goes, it must be because they think 2027 is dangerous. Ezaki acknowledges the logic but doesn't buy the conclusion. His read is that the synchrony reflects how capital-intensive frontier AI and space businesses have become, not a coordinated bet against the market. The show closes on that distinction.