Anthropic's IPO, and a $3 Trillion Valuation Case: All-In Podcast Reads the 'Big Two' Duopoly

With SpaceX now public at a $2 trillion valuation and trading near its IPO price, the panel turned to OpenAI and Anthropic as the next candidates for a 'trillion-dollar IPO.' Anthropic reportedly filed confidentially on June 1st, with Polymarket pricing a 65% chance of an IPO this year.

Investor Gavin Baker's forecast -- that Anthropic could hit over $100 billion in revenue with strong margins by end of 2026, and would trade at a $3 trillion valuation if public today -- was cited. Panelists noted OpenAI still carries heavy cash burn tied to its consumer-heavy business, while Anthropic may be 'accidentally profitable.'

The conversation turned to Mark Zuckerberg's tweet declaring a price war -- offering 'the same quality at 1/100th the cost' -- as a sign that cost is becoming the new competitive axis. One panelist countered that switching to open-source carries real technical friction that can't match the simplicity of just firing up Claude.

As a real-world example, DoorDash CTO Andy Fang was cited as having disclosed a hybrid architecture: internal coding benchmarks let them route the hardest work to Anthropic's frontier model Fable, while delegating lighter tasks to Kimi 2.6.

By token-revenue terms, Anthropic's ARR was pegged at roughly $60 billion versus OpenAI's roughly $40 billion -- panelists argued the AI industry is consolidating into a 'top two, then everyone else' structure. A caveat was noted, though: open-source model usage counts as 'dark tokens' that never register as revenue, so this metric alone doesn't capture actual usage share.